Are we doing enough to save Earth from a devastating asteroid strike?
It is a scenario beloved of Hollywood: a huge asteroid, several miles wide, is on a collision course with Earth. Scientists check and recheck their calculations but there is no mistake – civilisation is facing a cataclysmic end unless the space rock can be deflected.
It may sound like science fiction, but it is a threat that is being taken seriously by scientists.
Earlier this year, researchers estimated that asteroid YR4 2024 had a 3.1% chance of hitting Earth in 2032, before revising that likelihood down to 0.0017%. This week, new data suggested it was more likely to hit the moon, with a probability of 4.3%.
If that happens, the 53- to 67-metre (174ft-220ft) asteroid previously called a “city killer” will launch hundreds of tonnes of debris towards our planet, posing a risk to satellites, spacecraft and astronauts. […]
The chances of an enormous asteroid – the type that did for the dinosaurs – hitting Earth is admittedly low. “We think there’s one of these every 10m to 100m years, probably,” Lintott told the Guardian. “So I think you’d be right to ignore that when you decide whether to get up on a Thursday morning or not.”
Snodgrass said there were “precisely four” asteroids big enough and close enough to Earth to be considered “dino-killers”, and added: “We know where they are, and they’re not coming anywhere near us.”
And if there is a 4.3% chance of it hitting the Moon, that’s still a 95.7% chance it won’t. Obviously I’d rather see space agencies working to prevent all collisions if possible, but I think all the “ZOMG THIS ASTEROID COULD HIT THE MOON!” discourse doen’t help them much…
